The rising Asian community also seems to have given the Tories a hearing. Here, you find older owner-occupiers and commuters. While South Ruislip is the main Tory territory. The working-class area of Yiewsley is the most Labour friendly.
Students dominate in the university areas around Uxbridge and Colham where more people live in rented homes. That said, look a little closer and it's an inconsistent picture. The latest census suggests the population has become younger, more educated, and more diverse than a decade ago, all likely indicators of Labour support. The area hasn't experienced the same urban development as much of the capital, but the demographics have been moving in Labour's favour. It even bucked the London trend to back Brexit.Ī suburban commuter town on the western edge of metropolitan London, it includes both a university and RAF Northolt. The pressure to pull off the big win is on Labour candidate Keir Mather.Īt just 25, if elected, he would be the youngest MP in the Commons - the so-called Baby of the House.Įstablished in 2010, the seat of Uxbridge has elected Conservatives since then.īoris Johnson, who resigned the seat last month over a report from MPs concerning whether he lied to parliament over the partygate controversy, won more than half the vote at each of the last three contests. So perhaps winning Selby should be within Labour's reach if it is to win a majority at the next general election. Intriguingly, the estimates drawn up for Selby's boundaries for 2005, Mr Blair's last election, put Labour just four points shy of the Conservatives. That is more than the record swing achieved by Tony Blair in 1997. The 18-point swing required for victory would be the best Labour has achieved this parliament.īy-elections aren't ideal predictors of general election performance but, if they do win Selby, no doubt Labour will remind us they need a 12-point national swing for a parliamentary majority. With the general election creeping closer, Sir Keir Starmer needs to show he can win votes directly from the Conservatives in places throughout England, not just those with Labour history. In Selby, we suggest one of around 45% would be in line with recent by-elections. Labour needs to persuade voters in Selby, Sherburn and Appleton who did not support them then to do so now. They finished just six points behind the Conservatives despite managing to win only four of the 15 wards within the constituency. The latest council elections in 2022 also provide Labour with hope. 37% of households have a mortgage and rising interest rates might impact the vote. Selby and Ainsty is in the top 40 seats in England and Wales for mortgage holders.
The highest majority the party has overturned at a by-election is 14,654 votes in Mid-Staffordshire more than 30 years ago.īut while the demographics here might not be trending in Labour's favour, as more than a fifth of people are aged over 60, the issues are. If Labour were to win, it would set a record. Nigel Adams's decision to resign, because he was denied a peerage, means Selby will have a change of MP for the first time. Nestled in the North Yorkshire countryside, this seat is a mix of rural villages and towns surrounded by churches and historical battle sites.Īlmost everything about it says Tory heartland and since its creation in 2010 that's how people here have voted. By Dr Hannah Bunting and Professor Will Jennings, Sky election analystsĪ record-breaking result could come at the other end of England, in Selby and Ainsty.
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