First, the term “relatively favorable” needs qualification. The winter of 2022–23 may see a more substantial uptick in the Northern Hemisphere, but this is unlikely to be as severe as the December 2021–February 2022 wave. Looking ahead, the outlook for most regions, including Europe and North America, remains relatively favorable for the coming months, with levels of severe disease at or below recent levels. 4 Paul Mozur and Alexandra Stevenson, “In China, concerns grow over the economic impact of ‘zero Covid,” New York Times, Ji Siqi, “China coronavirus: Shanghai restrictions caused ‘more severe economic hit’ than previous lockdowns, China Macro Economy, June 1, 2002.
In the meantime, the current approach appears to have had substantial and mostly negative effects on both the Chinese and the global economies. Nonetheless, the relatively low levels of immunity among the population, including the elderly, make the endgame for this approach less clear than it is for countries that have shifted away from a zero-COVID-19 strategy.
That approach has kept the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 low. 3 Rhiannon Williams, “China is sticking to its zero-covid plan, and how Ukraine is rebuilding its destroyed cities,” MIT Technology Review, May 9, 2022. 2 “Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21,” Lancet, March 10, 2022.Īs of mid-July 2022, mainland China is the only large country pursuing a zero-COVID-19 strategy. The experience of these countries, with total excess mortality from the pandemic far lower than it is in other parts of the world and only a limited need for ongoing restrictions, can make a case that their response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been among the most effective in the world.
They have seen continued success, recording higher case counts but few deaths. Countries such as Australia and New Zealand have decreased their previously strong focus on controlling viral spread and are now transitioning to strategies for managing endemic disease. 1 “Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19),” Our World in Data, accessed July 24, 2022. While the BA.5 subvariant has produced a rise in the number of cases in many places, the burden of severe disease remains low in Europe and is only moderately higher in the United States, thanks to the lower average severity of Omicron subvariants and high levels of partial immunity. The past few months have seen many parts of the world, including Europe and North America, continue their journey toward endemic COVID-19.
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